Predicting the risk for progression of acquired myopia in school-age children
T.E. Tsybulska, Cand Sc (Med), N.G. Zavgorodnia, Dr Sc (Med), Prof., O.E. Pashkova, Dr Sc (Med)
Zaporizhzhia State Medical University; Medical Centre,
Background: Prediction of myopia progression in children is of practical relevance.
Purpose: To develop a prediction table for comprehensive assessment of the risks for progression of acquired myopia in school-age children.
Materials and Methods: One hundred and forty-four low myopic children (288 eyes) underwent the examination. Of these, 62 (124 eyes) had progressive myopia, and 82 (164 eyes) had stable myopia. Prediction of the risk of myopia progression in children was performed with the use of the Shigan technique for normalization of strongly intensive measures based on the probabilistic Bayesian approach.
Results: Minimal and maximal values for prediction coefficients with regard to the most informative predictors for myopia progression were calculated, and the relevant prediction table was generated. The table included history-, accommodation-, and biometry-related predictors, as well as those related to the phenotypical signs of connective tissue dysplasia (CTD) as follows: history-related predictors: family history of myopia (PCmin, 1.249; PCmax, 4.34) and manifestations of myopia at age under 8 years (PCmin, 1.18; PCmax, 2.67); accommodation-related predictors: habitual accommodative tone ≥ 0.5 D (PCmin, 1.29; PCmax, 7.51), absolute reserve of accommodation < 1.5 D (PCmin, 1.25; PCmax, 4.6), relative reserve of accommodation < 1.0 D (PCmin, 1.3; PCmax, 7.94); ocular biometry-related predictors: corneal diameter > 12 mm (PCmin, 1.31; PCmax, 9.31), axial length of the eye > 25.0 mm (PCmin, 1.31; PCmax, 9.82), anterior chamber depth ≥ 4 mm (PCmin, 1.28; PCmax, 6.22), corneal hysteresis < 11.0 (PCmin, 1.21; PCmax, 3.29), corneal radius of curvature > 8 mm (PCmin, 1.17; PCmax, 2.5), corneal refractive power < 41.5 D (PCmin, 1.17; PCmax, 2.5), peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (PCmin, 1.12; PCmax, 1.9), P < 0.05; CTD-related predictors: asthenic habitus (PCmin, 1.67; PCmax, 4.66), scoliosis and other postural anomalies (PCmin, 1.61; PCmax, 4.21), prominent venous network of the skin (PCmin, 1.75; PCmax, 5.97), cardiac valve prolapse and other minor cardiac anomalies (PCmin, 1.6; PCmax, 4.03), anomalies of tooth position and dentition (PCmin, 1.64; PCmax, 4.37), long digits (PCmin, 1.63; PCmax, 4.3), flat foot (PCmin, 1. 49; PCmax, 3.1), hypermobility of the joints (PCmin, 1.46; PCmax, 2.95), hyperelasticity of the skin (PCmin, 1.44; PCmax, 2.84), and congenital gallbladder anomalies (PCmin, 1.52; PCmax, 3.32), P < 0.05. The newly identified range for the risk of progression of myopia was subdivided into 3 equal sub-ranges (low, moderate and high likelihood for the risk, of 30.67-54.47, 54.48-78.27 and 78.28-102.08, respectively).
Conclusion: The use of the prognostic table proposed allows easy identification of school-age myopic children at risk for the progression of myopia, with subsequent development of customized diagnosis and treatment plans.
Keywords: myopia, prediction, school-age children
- Avetisov SE. [Myopia]. Moscow: Meditsina; 2002 Russian
- Bushueva NN. [Current aspects of the pathogenesis and treatment of progressive myopia]. In: [Proceedings of the Ukrainian National Conference of Pediatric Ophthalmology]. 4-5 October, 2012, Sevastopol. p.281-91 Russian
- Pasyechnikova NV, Rykov SA, Naumenko Liu, Kryzhanovskaia TV. [Prevention of Blindness and Visual Impairment in Ukraine: Current Status and Issues]. In: [Proceedings of the 12th Ukrainian National Congress of Ophthalmology]. 26-28 October, 2010, Odesa. p.303-4
- Kadurina TI, Gorbunova VN, editors. [Displasia of the Connective Tissue]. St Petersburg: ELBI; 2009 Russian
- Dorofeeva GD, Churilina AV, Dorofeev AE. [Undifferentiated connective tissue dysplasia syndromes and internal diseases]. Donetsk: Lebed LLC; 1998 Russian
- Lezhenko GO, Volosovets OP, Kryvopustov SP, et al. [Syndrome of unspecified dysplasia of the connective tissue in children (prevalence, diagnostic features and treatment)]. Zaporizhzhia: Zaporizhzhia State Medical University; 2006 Ukrainian
- Chetyz RR. [Role of extraocular pathology in the pathogenesis of myopia in children and irs complex treatment]. [Cand Sc (Med) Thesis]. Moscow: Helmholtz Research Institute for Eye Diseases; 2007. 25 p. Russian
- Shigan IeN. [Methods for predicting and modeling social and hygienic research]. Moscow: Meditsina; 1986 Russian
- Boichuk IM, Horbatiuk TL, Dragomiretskaia EI. [Assessment of the risk for myopia progression in children with acquired myopia based on findings of morphometric and function-related studies]. Oftalmol Zh. 2012;5:35–7. Russian
- Iomdina EN, Tarutta EP, Markosyan GA. [Biomechanical parameters of the corneoscleral membrane of the eye and the state of the connective tissue system in children and adolescents with various forms of progressive myopia]. Rossiyskaya pediatricheskaya oftalmologiya. 2013;1:18–23 Russian